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The struggles of China to quell the public relations disaster that is the Olympic Torch relay are snowballing out of control. Public Relations Rogue explains how China made some critical mistakes in understanding the 21st century media machine. This is expected from a nation that never really had to do public relations. The Chinese government controls the media in a way that the Bush Administration can only dream. Internationally, China's public relations has been "no comment" for the past 5000 years. I agree with the Public Relations Rogue in that the Chinese have no idea what they're getting themselves into with the Olympics.

After the pro-Tibet demonstrations during the Paris leg of the relay (they attacked a woman in a wheelchair, see photo), there has been anti-French protests, which the Chinese have tried to claim as radical, but as with 90 percent of stories from China, you can only take them at face value. They've been controlling the domestic media to think that the world is against them and the Chinese people believe it. Good luck welcoming people to your country with open arms in August.

Therein lies the problem. How does a nation (or any organization) gain credibility when it's been so grossly incredible for literally thousands of years?

PS: The top photo is a billboard from Reporters without Border's phenomenal anti-Olympics campaign. The imagery is great. Kudos to that marketing team. Those billboards were all over France.

The Ultimate October Surprise

Jeremy Meyer has an intriguing piece on October surprises and specifically one involving an American getting arrested abroad for war crimes. In this hypothetical scenario, an American CIA agent (Not Agent Zero) on vacation in Europe is arrested for torture, a war crime under the Rome Treaty to establish the International Criminal Court. Sounds like something out of a spy movie, but the premise is not far fetched at all. Meyer points out that courts in Italy and Germany have already issued warrants for over 30 CIA agents.

Now, if this scenario unravels during the heat of the campaign it becomes a pivotal issue, if not the pivotal issue. The Bush Administration is most likely going to come out guns blazing. This is the primary reason they initially opposed the ICC. They did not want Americans being tried by a court they feel is a threat to national sovereignty.

With the Administration rallying Americans behind saving American agents from this foreign court, what would the candidates do?

IMHO, Obama could use this as a perfect example of how the Republicans have used this detained agent as a pawn and scapegoat to justify the torture authorized by the administration and supported by Republicans in Congress. Guantanamo Bay and the authorized use of torture have done more to degrade our standing in the world than any other foreign policy.

McCain has a unique position in this equation. He could toe the Bush line and rally support for this agent or, IMHO, he should use this as critical place to separate himself from the failed policies of the Bush administration. He could use his past experiences to highlight his vehement opposition to this torture policy which would triangulate the position a la Dick Morris.

Tell me your thoughts. This is a great example of how these campaigns must have clear and definite contingency plans for all "October surprises." So they can roll out with a clear,but nuanced position immediately. What other scenarios should they be planning for?

FYI: Here is a great article describing all the candidates positions on a grossly underreported issue, the ICC.