Obama stacks that cheese

Obama's fundraising ability is unparalleled. The FEC and and media can't keep up with the number of donors and the amount of money he's raising. This article on prblogger.com talks about how Obama's fund raising ability is proof of The Long Tail theory. Simply put, The Long Tail theory states that, with internet technologies, companies can drastically increase revenue by selling more of less. The Bush campaign in 2004 "pioneered" a new way of fundraising through the McCain-Feingold Campaign Reform Act. Hillary used this model effectively as well. They both were excellent at getting the usual fundraisers to donate the max amount. Obama has in turn used the internet to blow the other candidates out of the water by getting record numbers of voters donating $200 or less. This article from The Atlantic gives great insight into the Obama model and the Silicon Valley supergeniuses that developed it for him. A must read for anyone who wants to know the future of campaign fundraising. Basically, Obama is revolutionizing campaign finance and checking more cheddar than the food inspector.

I hate Terry McAuliffe

He is the worst. He was chair of the DNC when the Dems were at their worst. He's been on the news pretty much nonstop for the past couple weeks. Talking Points Memo has an epic montage of his antics these past couple weeks...


This reminds me of someone. Oh yah...

Back on the campaign trail...

I was bored today so I decided to make a speculative list of Barack's potential vice presidents cause that's what we're all about here at SYNJK, speculation. Some other outlets have taken a stab at it (here, here, here, here).

I made a pretty exhaustive list (over 40). I cut some cause they were too old and would be counterintuitive to Obama's change message (Sen. Chris Dodd, Sen. Tom Harkin, Sen. Bob Graham. Gen. Wesley Clark, Lee Hamilton). Some are too new on the scene (Gov. Bill Ritter, Gov. Chet Cuver, Sen. John Tester). Some don't have enough national star power (Gov. Phil Bresdesen, Gov. Chris Gregoire). Some have too much political baggage that would distract the campaign (Tom Daschle, Max Cleland, Sen. John Kerry, Michael Bloomberg, Gov. Bill Richardson). Some have worked too closely with McCain (Sen. Russ Feingold, Gov. Janet Napolitano). Some are too conservative (Sen. Bob Casey, Tim Roemer). Some are too black (Rep. Deval Patrick, Ray Nagin). Some have explicitly stated they are not interested (John Edwards, Sam Nunn, Sen. Ken Salazar). Some endorsed HRC (Gov. Ted Strickland, Sen. Barbara Mikulski, Sen. Evan Bayh). And some were just a little too out there (Tom Brokaw, Keith Olbermann, Bruce Springsteen, Tim Russert, Oprah, George Clooney).

So here is my (Obama's) short list (in no particular order):

Sen. Joe Biden - The Safe Bet
Pros: The diminutive Democrat on foreign policy, one of Obama's weaknesses. His years on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee give him great self-confidence in dealing with international affairs and national security. He is very well liked in the Senate and would be a great resource in getting Obama's legislation passed. His reasoned rhetoric against neoconservatism would be a great asset on the campaign trail.
Cons: Not from a swing state, or a very populous state, Delaware, for that matter. He's a pretty cocky guy. It'd be hard for him to play second fiddle. I don't know about two Senators running together again; it didn't work out too well in 2004. His name is first on the list for Secretary of State.

Gov. Tim Kaine - The People's Champ
Pros: Populist governor from a state, Virginia, that I feel will play a pivotal role in the election. Endorsed Obama very early in the campaign. He was a Catholic missionary and is very vocal about his faith; this would be a great asset among a group that Obama is struggling with, Catholics. Notoriously tough on crime.
Cons: Relatively conservative. He and Obama might have a tough time agreeing on some social issues (abortion, same-sex marrige, etc.). He doesn't bring anything new to the table aside from being from the South. He went to Harvard Law School like Obama and worked as a community organizer after law school like Obama. He's relatively new to politics. He doesn't bring a lot of experience to compliment Obama's lack of experience.

Gov. Kathleen Sebelius - For The Ladies
Pros: Another popular governor from a traditionally red state. Endorsed Obama early. As a woman, she could quell some of this ridiculous notion that the election was sexist. She has a great record as governor (she eliminated the $1.1 million debt she inherited when she became governor without raising taxes). She is another voice for change and would effectively push Obama's message of change. Her presence will fundamentally change the electoral map.
Cons: I'm a little apprehensive of a rainbow coalition type ticket. If a black man running as president will be tough for some voters, a woman VP won't help their confidence. A lot of people are questioning her speaking skills (she botched the Dem's State of the Union response). This could be a liability during the campaign.

Sen. Jim Webb - The Fire Ball
Pros: Like Kaine, he is popular in his home state of Virginia, which would make that state easily blue. He's a decorated Vietnam veteran and his son served in Iraq which would compliment Obama's lack of military experience. He served as Secretary of the Navy during the Reagan administration. He has been a vocal and credible opponent of the war in Iraq. He's an excellent campaigner (ran a great campaign for the Senate in 2006). He got busted for bringing a gun into the Senate (instant credibility among 2nd amendment proponents). He got the highest approval percentage out of 15 VP candidates during an exit poll after the NC and Ind. primaries
Cons: He hasn't even endorsed Obama yet (or Clinton). He has also publicly stated that he's not interested in the position.

Ret. Gen. Anthony Zinni - The Godfather
Pros: His military experience instantly transforms Obama's campaign. He now has a great shield against Republican attacks against his lack of military knowledge or national security. He would be a great liaison between the president an the military. Zinni is a special position because he is a vocal opponent of the war in Iraq and even said that his vote for Bush in 2000 was a mistake. IMHO, this guy would immediately undercut any inroads McCain made on national security and would propel Obama to the White House.
Cons: I firmly believe that the president should not be a former high ranking military official. The Commander in Chief is a civilian for specific reasons. There needs to be civilian control of the military. Also, many Washington insiders wanted him to be Kerry's VP in 2004, but he vehemently stated his desire to not hold public office. He is also being tossed around as a McCain VP.

SYNJK's Dark Horse Special...

Rep. Robert Wexler
Pros: He's from Florida and very popular in Florida. This would help cure the rift caused by the DNC not counting Florida's delegates. He's also popular within the Jewish community and a staunch supporter of Israel. Obama has struggled with gaining the support of the Jewish community. His personable style would be a great asset on the campaign trail. He's a voice for change within Congress and would be a great advocate of Obama's message. He voiced his support for Obama early in the campaign.
Cons: He's kind of a greenhorn on the political scene. He admitted to doing cocaine, because "it's a fun thing to do." Actually, that kind of honesty could be a pro.


I feel like any of those people would be great Veeps and help Obama win the election. Some people feel that the VP choice is overrated. I partly agree. There is no question that people vote for a president, not a vice president. However, the choice of VP can tell you a lot about a presidential candidate's character. It is public knowledge that during the 2004 campaign, Kerry wanted his old friend Dick Gephardt to be his VP, but he was persuaded by his advisers and the polls to choose John Edwards. Not to take anything away from John Edwards, but this encapsulated Kerry's entire campaign. Kerry lacked the conviction to be president. He should have gone with what he knew to be right. He wasn't going to win North Carolina. He would have been better served by showing voters that he will do what he believes in, not what the polls are saying.

Why Hillary Lost

Finally, this headache is over. I've tried to keep my criticisms of Hillary to a minimum (There are many. Try to find my anonymous blog if you want a more honest, and vulgar, opinion :) ), but I am elated that the nomination process is essentially over and Obama can no longer be "caucus blocused" anymore. There has been a little pep in my step the past couple days as I hum Obama's new campaign song, Jay-Z's "99 Problems."

In the aftermath, the pundits (here, here) have been trying to explain why Clinton lost. Here's my take:

5. Too little, too late

It wasn't until she was well into the campaign that she began making the argument that she would be the best candidate to defeat the Republicans. As of Iowa/NH, it was a foregone conclusion that whoever would be the Democrat's nominee would win the presidency. So, all the candidates were trying to position themselves as the best president, not the best general election candidate. However, IMHO, McCain was the best candidate out of the Republican field to win the general election because of his centrist views and defeating a Republican became an issue only when he won the nomination. Hillary had a viable argument that she was the best candidate to defeat the Republicans, although I disagree. If she had made a more concerted effort to initially position herself as the only candidate that would lock up a win against a centrist Republican earlier, she would have fared much better.


4. She didn't unequivocally denounce her vote to authorize the use of force in Iraq.

IMHO, the most prominent issue for Democrats (the general election is another story) is the war in Iraq. There was a clear definition between Obama and Clinton on this issue. She ran on a platform of experience, but she supported the worst foreign policy decision since Bush the First ate that week old sushi. Read her speech. It shows rational, reasoned thought, but no conviction. So much for her three "cojones." I remember watching that speech on C-SPAN at like 2:30 a.m. and thinking "You could have been a contender!"


3. Hubris

This word gets thrown around a lot, but it is the downfall of 99% of politicians and 100% of the New England Patriots. Hillary and her staff felt a sense of entitlement, but entitlement doesn't win Super Bowls. Ask Bill Belichick. Why would it win elections? THAT'S WHY YOU PLAY THE GAME! She loaded her staff with old friends that wound up hurting her because of their ties ties to organizations that were working directly against Hillary's positions *cough* *cough* Mark Penn *cough*. She thought she was going to have it wrapped up by Super Tuesday and had zero strategy otherwise. She basically skipped the caucus states. All these things line up to the fact that she thought she was entitled to the presidency, but we know what happens to best-laid plans of mice and men.


2. Who is Hillary Clinton?

Hillary had a terrible problem telling the truth. Why did she lie about landing in sniper fire? Why did she lie about her being named after Sir Edmund Hillary even though she was born before he climbed Everest? Why did she lie about Chelsea being in lower Manhattan on 9/11? Why did she oppose the Columbian FTA when her chief strategist's firm was lobbying for the Columbian government in Congress? People could not trust her. All politicians pander to public sentiment, but there's a clear line between saying lies that can easily be refuted and having a balanced, nuanced position that be harder to refute. My mom says my little brother says lies that he knows that my mom knows so he can get caught and get attention. The similarities between HillDog and my little bro are numerous, but I'll leave that for another post.

I feel that the only time she was really honest with the American people was that infamous moment on the bus in New Hampshire and she won New Hampshire.



1. Barack Obama is a G.
Obama was a better candidate. She may have made some mistakes in her campaign, but she did not lose this campaign. Obama won it.

Two Candidates and a Sports Analogy

During Obama's Meet the Press interview, he was on point per usual. He gave articulate nuanced answers to Russert's usual rash of questions that must have kept Russert's research team up all week. Obama stayed on message and his unique message is going to drive him to victory as long as he controls the debate. Kingpin James Carvile sums it up, "He had the greatest fastball anybody had seen, and now it's 'Hey man, can you throw a change-up?' He needs another pitch in his repertoire." That ability to frame the debate, Obama's change-up, will decide this election.

George W. Bush and, specifically, Karl Rove are excellent at this. Watch Bush's appearance on Meet the Press in November of 1999 while he was running for president:



Granted, this was much earlier in the campaign, but Russert asked his usual type of questions. Bush not only answered them articulately and nuanced, but he had a simple clear message that he wanted the viewers to take away, "restoring honor and dignity to the office." He says about a half dozen times. This message resonated perfectly for the times following the Lewinsky scandals. He also did an excellent job of this in 2004. Remember "Steady leadership in a time of change"? I bet you do.

What was Obama's take away message? If someone asked me what I remember from Bush's Meet the Press interview (which I bet was exactly like every interview he did) I could tell you precisely, but if someone asked about Obama's interview I could give a convoluted series of policy positions which would probably be wrong.

If Obama's gunna strike out McCain, he's got to command the plate and you can't command the plate with just the high heat. Throwing 99mph fastballs all season will leave you with a worn out arm come time for the Fall Classic.

C'mon, Bubba. You're better than this.

NBC's Chuck Todd details how Bill Clinton completely underestimated the 21st century media. I know Clinton hasn't run a campaign since 1996, but he should be well aware of the internet's influence on the political scene. Lest he forget, it was was an internet "gadfly," Matt Drudge, which broke the Lewinsky scandal in 1998.

Todd outlines a series of events in the 2008 campaign that Bill could have easily avoided if he had an understanding of the new media. The one most striking to me is when Bill brought up Hillary's sniper fire comment weeks after it had mostly died in the media. This "YouTube moment" shows a critical feature of 21st century media: The news cycle has shortened considerably. At the point of Bill's speech in Indiana, Hillary had made an appropriate response and the media was already talking about "bitter" and Carter meeting with Hamas. Hillary's trip to Bosnia was still in the mind of voters, but it was fading with the lessened media coverage. (Bill also didn't help the cause by numerous factual errors in the speech). When the news cycle has passed. let sleeping dogs lie.

C'mon, Bubba. You led this country through its largest economic growth since WWII and you are the best public speaker this country has seen in decades. Please, learn from your mistakes and don't let yourself be dragged down by the same medium that tried to take you down in 98.

My Top 5 Moments of this Campaign, thus far

Since this page is in some part an homage to one of the most gangster political moments of all time, I figure I should give it up for the most gangster moments of the 2008 campaign so far. I'm sure there's more to come with two pretty gangster candidates and cameras watching them at all times.

From the home office in Eugene, Oregon:

5. Mitt Romney letting the dogs out
Ok...so this was probably the least gangster moment, the most Brooks Brotherest candidate awkwardly using out of date "urban" references to connect with the heart of Duvall County (on MLK day). It had to make the list regardless. My favorite part is when he compliments the baby's "bling bling."

2. Carville calling Richardson "Judas"
James Carville, the Ragin Cajun, is one of my personal idols. He is a political genius. He loves college football. His marriage with Mary Matalin is proof enough that a Bipartisan agenda can be reached. Not to mention his distinguished acting career, Old School, People v. Larry Flint, The Assassination of Jesse James... I digress. What I admire most is his candor. He told the media exactly how he felt about Richardson's endorsement of Obama. Not only that, but he never backed down all while Samantha Power and Gerarldine Ferraro were back tracking worse than Mark Foley in the page changing room. Powerful lesson, don't say something if you're not willing to live with the consequences. Carville = Gangster

1. Barack Obama getting the dirt off his shoulders
Easily the most gangster moment of the campaign. Why has it taken so long for a candidate to quote the CEO of the ROC? Obama did. And I think this isn't the last song he quotes. Jigga already wrote his speech for when he locks up the nomination, "99 Prombems."

The Ultimate October Surprise

Jeremy Meyer has an intriguing piece on October surprises and specifically one involving an American getting arrested abroad for war crimes. In this hypothetical scenario, an American CIA agent (Not Agent Zero) on vacation in Europe is arrested for torture, a war crime under the Rome Treaty to establish the International Criminal Court. Sounds like something out of a spy movie, but the premise is not far fetched at all. Meyer points out that courts in Italy and Germany have already issued warrants for over 30 CIA agents.

Now, if this scenario unravels during the heat of the campaign it becomes a pivotal issue, if not the pivotal issue. The Bush Administration is most likely going to come out guns blazing. This is the primary reason they initially opposed the ICC. They did not want Americans being tried by a court they feel is a threat to national sovereignty.

With the Administration rallying Americans behind saving American agents from this foreign court, what would the candidates do?

IMHO, Obama could use this as a perfect example of how the Republicans have used this detained agent as a pawn and scapegoat to justify the torture authorized by the administration and supported by Republicans in Congress. Guantanamo Bay and the authorized use of torture have done more to degrade our standing in the world than any other foreign policy.

McCain has a unique position in this equation. He could toe the Bush line and rally support for this agent or, IMHO, he should use this as critical place to separate himself from the failed policies of the Bush administration. He could use his past experiences to highlight his vehement opposition to this torture policy which would triangulate the position a la Dick Morris.

Tell me your thoughts. This is a great example of how these campaigns must have clear and definite contingency plans for all "October surprises." So they can roll out with a clear,but nuanced position immediately. What other scenarios should they be planning for?

FYI: Here is a great article describing all the candidates positions on a grossly underreported issue, the ICC.